Paul Thomas Anderson dominated DGA, but Sinners Best Picture Chances remain open.
Paul Thomas Anderson was crowned the DGA Award winner on Sunday for One Battle After Another, solidifying his position as the frontrunner for Best Director at the Oscars. While Anderson was widely expected to take the prize, awards watchers were closely monitoring Ryan Coogler and Sinners for a potential upset. Coogler’s film has been gathering momentum throughout the season, earning a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations, the most in Academy history, and performing strongly with regional critics, nearly matching Anderson with wins.
So far, however, Anderson has dominated the guilds, and history strongly favours him. Over the past 20 years, 18 of 20 DGA winners went on to claim the Best Director Oscar, a remarkably consistent track record that makes Anderson the odds-on favourite. Only a few directors in recent decades have broken this pattern, including Ben Affleck for Argo in 2012, who won the DGA but was not nominated for the Oscar, and Sam Mendes for 1917 in 2019, who won the guild but lost to Bong Joon Ho for Parasite. These rare exceptions are a reminder that even the most reliable precursor cannot guarantee an outcome.
Even with the director race leaning toward Anderson, Sinners fans should not lose hope. The Best Picture race remains fluid, and several major precursors could still give the film momentum. Actor awards (previously SAG), BAFTA, the Writers Guild (WGA), and the Producers Guild (PGA) remain on the calendar, all of which could tilt the scales in favour of Coogler’s film. The Academy has historically rewarded films that generate broad industry enthusiasm even without sweeping every precursor, and they clearly love Sinners.
History shows that a film does not need to dominate all guilds to win Best Picture. In 2016, La La Land nearly swept the season, winning almost every major precursor, while Moonlight captured only the Golden Globe Drama, SAG Ensemble, and WGA awards yet still pulled off a historic win. Even more dramatically, Parasite entered Oscar night with just a SAG Ensemble win and a WGA win, while 1917 had been dominating nearly every other precursor, and it still took home the Best Picture crown. These examples underscore that surprises remain possible and that awards season can pivot in unexpected ways.
Here is a look at the upcoming key precursors:
- BAFTA: February 22 (Expected favourites: One Battle After Another and Hamnet)
- PGA: March 3 (Expected favourites: Sinners and One Battle After Another)
- SAG / Actor: March 2 (Expected favourites: Sinners)
- WGA: March 8 (Expected favourites: Sinners in Original, One Battle After Another in Adapted)
The passion surrounding Sinners is palpable, and if the film surges at the right moment, it could still emerge as a serious Best Picture contender. The performances and storytelling have resonated deeply with audiences and critics alike, and the industry response reflects that enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Paul Thomas Anderson has a compelling narrative working in his favor. He is long overdue for recognition, his film captures timely cultural and social themes, and the guild support he has already received positions him strongly for a director win. As the next few weeks unfold, awards watchers can expect suspense, intrigue, and possibly more surprises.
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