Can Sinners Win Best Picture?
This awards season has already made history. Sinners shattered the all-time Oscar nomination record with 16 nominations, topping the previous high of 14 held by All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land. Most pundits had predicted 15 nominations, but the 16th, a supporting actor nod for Delroy Lindo, was a delightful surprise. It proves one thing: the Academy clearly loves Sinners, and even the most bullish predictions underestimated its appeal. Meanwhile, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has been the presumed frontrunner all season, coming in with a strong 13 nominations.
History shows that being the most-nominated film does not guarantee a Best Picture win. Only 7 of the top-nominated films over the last 20 years have taken home the prize, which makes this race unusually open and keeps Sinners very much in contention.
Acting Nominations Signal Strength
Sinners’ acting nominations further highlight its momentum. Michael B. Jordan received a lead nod, while supporting actors Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo also scored nominations. One Battle After Another earned three acting nominations, but the absence of a Best Actress nomination for Chase Infiniti is a blow. Collectively, this signals that the Academy is rewarding Sinners across its major categories, reinforcing its position as a serious contender.
Precursor Awards and Momentum
Looking ahead to major precursors, Sinners is expected to perform well at the Actor awards (formerly the SAGs) where the Best Ensemble is often seen as an indicator of broader awards success. The film also seems likely to win WGA. History shows that momentum can shift, even when one film dominates early. The 2017 Moonlight vs La La Land race is a perfect example. La La Land swept the Critics Choice, BAFTA, PGA, Golden Globes, and DGA awards, yet Moonlight was able to win best picture with just a Golden Globe and a WGA.
Recent Best Picture trends suggest the Academy is willing to embrace the unconventional. Films like Everything Everywhere All at Once and Parasite are clear examples. Even Anora probably would have lost to a more conventional contender like The Brutalist just a decade ago. Today, the Academy has shown a willingness to reward unexpected choices.
Box Office Context
One stat nobody is talking about is that every Best Picture winner EVER has been profitable at the box office. Despite critical acclaim, One Battle After Another did not turn a theatrical profit and reportedly lost the studio approximately $100 million. A Best Picture win for the film would set a new precedent.
Both Sinners and One Battle After Another are strong, compelling films with narratives and performances that could go the distance. But for the first time this Oscar season, an upset feels truly possible.
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