Oscar Predictions: Post-Fall Festivals

With the New York Film Festival now wrapped, the fall festival season has officially
come to a close, and we finally have our clearest look yet at the 2026 awards race.
Almost every major contender has screened for critics, and we now know what has
risen, what has plateaued, and what has quietly fallen away.

The next major shake-up will come in December, when the guilds start to weigh in
and we get our first true precursors. For now, this is the landscape as it stands,
based on critical reception, festival momentum, and early industry buzz.

BEST PICTURE

1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.)
3. Hamnet (Focus Features)
4. Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Sentimental Value (Neon)
6. It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
7. Wicked: For Good (Universal)
8. Frankenstein (Netflix)
9. Jay Kelly (Netflix)
10. Bugonia (Focus Features)
11. No Other Choice (Neon)
12. A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)
14. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Evil (20th Century Studios)
15. The Secret Agent (Neon)
16. The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight)
17. Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)
18. Train Dreams (Netflix)
19. Song Sung Blue (Focus Features)
20. Weapons (Warner Bros.)

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
2. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
3. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
4. Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)
5. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident)
6. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
7. Guillermo Del Toro (Frankenstein)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia)
9. Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice)
10. Kathryn Bigelow (A House of Dynamite)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
2. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
3. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)
4. Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)
5. Chase Infinity (One Battle After Another)
6. Emma Stone (Bugonia)
7. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
8. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
9. Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love)
10. Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)

BEST ACTOR

1. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
3. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
4. Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Evil)
5. Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
6. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
7. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
8. Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?)
9. George Clooney (Jay Kelly)
10. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
2. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
3. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme)
5. Amy Madigan (Weapons)
6. Ingar Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
7. Regina Hall (One Battle After Another)
8. Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
9. Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme)
10. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
2. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)
3. Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
4. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
5. Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Evil)
6. Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)
7. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)
8. Jonathan Bailey (Wicked: For Good)
9. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
10. Billy Crudup (Train Dreams)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Jay Kelly
5. It Was Just an Accident
6. Is This Thing On?
7. Weapons
8. A House of Dynamite
9. The Secret Agent
10. Blue Moon

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. No Other Choice
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Evil
7. Frankenstein
8. Wicked: For Good
9. Train Dreams
10. Song Sung Blue

BEST CASTING

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Evil
6. Marty Supreme
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
8. Sentimental Value
9. Bugonia
10. Jay Kelly

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Sentimental Value (Norway)
2. It Was Just an Accident (France)
3. No Other Choice (South Korea)
4. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
5. Sirat (Spain)
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
7. The President’s Cake (Iraq)
8. Late Shift (Switzerland)
9. The Love That Remains (Iceland)
10. Sound of Falling (Germany)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. The Perfect Neighbour
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
5. The Alabama Solution
6. Seeds
7. Cutting Through Rocks
8. Cover Up
9. Apocalypse in the Tropics
10. Deaf President Now

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. K-Pop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Elio
5. Scarlet
6. Little Amelie of the Character of Rain
7. Ne Zha 2
8. The Twits
9. In Your Dreams
10. A Magnificent Life

______________________________________________________________________

---

Binge. play. Watch. Repeat.