Awards Season Week 1 RECAP: The Race Begins to Take Shape
Welcome to the first week of the next phase of awards season, the week where speculation stops and the numbers start talking. Gothams, NYFCC, NBR, AFI, Critics Choice and more all dropped results, giving us our earliest, clearest snapshot of the actual race. Some contenders broke big, others hit turbulence. Here is how reality reshaped the week.1/12: Gotham Award Winners
2/12: New York Film Critics Circle Winners
3/12: National Board of Review Winners
3/12: Independent Spirit Award Nominations
3/12: Atlanta Film Critics Circle Winners
4/12: AFI Top 10 Films of 2025
5/12: Critics Choice Award Nominations
5/12: Michigan Movie Critics Guild Nominations
5/12: Seattle Film Critics Society Nominations
THE BOOSTS: Performances and Films That Broke Through
If there was one theme this week, it was the rise of the bubble contenders. These actors needed visibility, validation or proof that industry voters were genuinely paying attention, and they got it.
Actors Who Surged
A collection of performers made exactly the kind of moves that transform “maybe” candidates into real threats:
• Amanda Seyfried, Testament of Ann Lee
• Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
• Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
• Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
• Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
• Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Each of these actors secured key nominations or wins across the Gothams, NYFCC, NBR, or the CCA. One group stepped forward from large ensembles, where it was previously unclear which performance would emerge as the awards frontrunner. Their recognition signals that they are the performance being singled out within the cast. The other group consists of performances that had been widely praised but lacked measurable momentum; this week, nominations and wins confirmed that the critical acclaim was real and that these actors are now legitimate contenders.
Films That Leveled Up
The biggest burst of momentum belongs to It Was Just an Accident, which dominated early critics’ groups with major showings at both the Gothams and NYFCC. In a year crowded with prestige titles, this is the kind of early surge that reshapes the narrative.
THE DROPS: Early Favorites Losing Grip
Awards season is never only about who is rising. It is also about who is losing ground, and this week delivered some sobering signs.
Wicked: From High to Hesitant
Wicked: For Good entered the week on solid footing after landing at NBR and AFI. The Critics Choice Awards, however, dealt a real blow:
• Cynthia Erivo missing Best Actress
• Jon M. Chu missing Best Director, after winning last year for Part 1
Neither is a small omission. The CCA has strong crossover with the Oscars, and these misses expose real vulnerability.
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Late Arrival, Mixed Signals
James Cameron’s film screened extremely late for critics yet still managed to break into both NBR and AFI. Missing Best Picture at the CCA complicates the read. Passion matters for these large-scale contenders, and the CCA snub suggests the film needs a strong Golden Globes showing to settle the narrative.
International Films Feeling the Friction
No Other Choice and The Secret Agent did not have the week they needed. Still, several major groups from this stretch, including AFI, NBR and the CCA, skew heavily toward American films. This is not the moment to panic. The Golden Globes are the real test.
Jay Kelly and Bugonia: Mixed Messages
Jay Kelly is not in trouble, but it is also not generating the momentum that would lock it into the race. Adam Sandler continues to appear where he needs to, becoming the film’s strongest awards asset. George Clooney, however, took several hits, most notably missing a Critics Choice nomination. It is not catastrophic, but it is a meaningful setback.
Bugonia remains a bubble contender, rising partly because others are dropping off. Its inclusion in the CCA Best Picture lineup was a genuine win. Jesse Plemons missing Best Actor is a concern. The category is too competitive this year to recover easily from an early miss of that size.
THE EMERGING BEST PICTURE LANDSCAPE
We now have the clearest outline yet of what the Best Picture race is beginning to look like. A consensus seven is emerging, built on consistent showings across the major precursors and key regional groups.
• One Battle After Another
• Marty Supreme
• Sinners
• Hamnet
• Frankenstein
• Sentimental Value
• It Was Just an Accident
These seven have the strongest combination of critical support, precursor traction and narrative momentum as we head into the next stage of voting.
The Final Three Spots Are Wide Open
The remaining slots in the Best Picture ten are firmly up for grabs. The films currently battling for those final positions appear to be:
• Train Dreams
• Jay Kelly
• Bugonia
• Wicked: For Good
• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• No Other Choice
• The Secret Agent
• The Testament of Ann Lee
Each has flashes of strength, but also visible weaknesses. Some titles need the Golden Globes to stabilize their campaigns. Others need SAG or BAFTA to assert viability. At this point, any of these films could still make the ten, or fall out entirely, depending on what unfolds over the next few weeks.
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