TIFF Has Spoken: What This Year’s People’s Choice Winners Mean for the Oscar Race
Yes, I’ve been saying it for weeks, but now it feels real, the Oscar race is finally taking shape. With Venice, Telluride, and now Toronto in the rearview, we have our clearest picture yet of where the season is headed. Toronto’s audience prize has built a reputation as one of the strongest predictors of how the Best Picture race will unfold, and here’s why. The People’s Choice is unique because it isn’t decided by a jury of critics or an industry panel; it’s chosen by the audience. In other words, it tells us what plays with crowds. And over the past decade, the crossover to Oscar glory has been staggering: nearly every TIFF winner since 2010 has landed a Best Picture nomination, and several went all the way to secure the win.
So, what does this year’s line up tell us?
THIS YEARS WINNERS:
(1) People’s Choice Award: Hamnet, dir. Chloé Zhao
(2) First runner-up: Frankenstein, dir. Guillermo del Toro
(3) Second runner-up: Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, dir. Rian Johnson
Hamnet Is the Real Deal
Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet took the top prize, a win that feels seismic. The film premiered at Telluride to rapturous reviews, instantly positioning itself as one of the few genuine rivals to Sinners in the Best Picture race. But TIFF proves that wasn’t just a critics’ mirage, and audiences are embracing it too.
The film’s heavy subject matter was always going to be its hurdle. Would general audiences connect, or would it be labelled “too difficult”? By winning People’s Choice, Hamnet clears that bar with ease. It’s not only liked, it’s loved. At this point, it feels locked in as a top three contender, with a very real chance of going the distance.
Netflix Finds Its Contender in Frankenstein?
The bigger surprise might be Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein placing as first runner-up. Netflix has been shopping for a lead pony this season. Between Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite, and del Toro’s Gothic reimagining, the streamer had options, but none arrived with the sort of across-the-board raves that make a campaign obvious.
In fact, Frankenstein stumbled out of both Venice and Telluride, with critics largely underwhelmed. TIFF changed that narrative. Placing second tells us that general audiences are vibing with the film far more than critics did. For Netflix, that’s a signal. Since 2019, they’ve had a Best Picture nominee every single year. Don’t be surprised if Frankenstein becomes their number one push.
Rian Johnson’s Mystery Stays in the Game
In second runner-up came Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. On paper, this isn’t a Best Picture contender, neither Knives Out nor Glass Onion cracked the lineup. But both did land screenplay nominations, and TIFF recognition here suggests the third entry could continue that trend. Consider it a safe bet for Adapted Screenplay, but not much beyond that.
The Ones That Missed
If TIFF is about momentum, it can also take it away. Sentimental Value, which did manage a showing in the festival’s international race, has cooled off since Cannes. Once thought to be a major threat, it’s drifting toward the middle of the pack.
More striking is Rental Family. For months, pundits were predicting it as the TIFF champ. Between a Searchlight release, a crowd-pleasing premise, and Brendan Fraser in the lead, it looked like a perfect recipe. But failing to even place here is brutal. Unless Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On delivers in New York, Searchlight’s season may already be wobbling.
Then there’s The Smashing Machine. Dwayne Johnson’s turn had its share of intrigue, and while the film may still find love in Makeup & Hairstyling (and perhaps a longshot acting nod), the Best Picture path is all but closed.
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With TIFF wrapped, attention shifts east. The New York Film Festival kicks off September 26 and runs through October 13. NYFF isn’t the same kind of Oscar-launching pad as TIFF, but it does set tone and conversation, with yet another audience seeing these films.
For now, though, the headlines belong to Zhao’s Hamnet. TIFF has spoken, and if past seasons are any indication, this film is now firmly in the Oscar conversation.
Binge. play. Watch. Repeat.
