On the Bubble: The Oscar Contenders Who Could Still Break Through
Every awards season, there’s a certain smugness that settles in early. The consensus forms, pundits declare their “locks,” and the rest of the conversation starts to harden. But if history has taught us anything, it’s that the Oscar race never unfolds in a straight line. There are always a few surprises, a late-breaking contender who catches fire, a passion pick that refuses to die, or a veteran who suddenly becomes “overdue.”
These actors may not be pencilled into everyone’s Top 5 predictions just yet, but they’re hovering right on the edge, and with the right campaign, timing, and a bit of luck, they could break through.
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Best Actor)
Hawke has been singled out for one of the year’s most soulful performances, with many calling it the best of his career. There’s genuine passion for the work, and the industry’s long-standing affection for Hawke gives him a strong narrative if voters decide to reward consistency and craft.
Gold Derby ranking: 12
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (Best Actress)
Byrne won the Silver Lion for Best Lead Performance at the Berlin International Film Festival and has been cited repeatedly as a standout of the year. With decades of respected work and zero nominations to her name, her overdue status could resonate if critics rally behind the film.
Gold Derby ranking: 5
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Supporting Actor)
While “Frankenstein” is shaping up mainly as a technical contender, Elordi’s transformative and emotionally charged performance has been singled out by nearly every early viewer. He’s had an impressive run of buzzy projects in recent years, and a nomination feels inevitable sooner or later. If “Frankenstein” makes it into Best Picture, there’s a good chance this happens.
Gold Derby ranking: 8
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Best Actress)
Focus Features confirmed Hudson will compete in Lead Actress, and early buzz has called it the best work of her career. A former nominee, Hudson has a likable, movie-star charm that voters respond to, and her placement in the Golden Globes’ musical or comedy category could give her early momentum. The Academy’s affection for musical biopics may also just tip the scales.
Gold Derby ranking: 13
Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Supporting Actress)
Supporting Actress remains one of the season’s most fluid categories, and Madigan’s performance in the horror hit “Weapons” has become a favorite. Horror rarely breaks through at the Oscars, but her commanding work and the film’s success could make her one of the year’s surprise nominees.
Gold Derby ranking: 6
Will Arnett, “Is This Thing On” (Best Actor)
This one could be the sleeper hit of the season. Directed by Bradley Cooper, whose last two features earned multiple nominations, “Is This Thing On” premieres at the New York Film Festival on October 10th and has strong pedigree. Arnett’s reputation, charm, and Cooper’s awards track record could combine to make this a late-breaking player if the reviews deliver.
Gold Derby ranking: 14
Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia” (Best Actor)
Plemons continues to build one of the most quietly respected careers of his generation, and “Bugonia” is being hailed as his finest work yet. The only concern is that Focus Features is clearly prioritizing “Hamnet” this season, but if “Bugonia” finds traction in Best Picture, Plemons could easily ride along.
Gold Derby ranking: 7
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (Supporting Actor)
Sandler has been building toward an Oscar nomination for years, and “Jay Kelly” may be the one to finally make it happen. Playing an actor in the film industry gives him the kind of meta role voters often love. His chances will depend heavily on how strongly Netflix positions the film in its awards slate.
Gold Derby ranking: 4
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Supporting Actor)
As one of the standout performances in what many consider to be the Best Picture frontrunner, Del Toro could easily find himself in the Supporting Actor lineup. Sean Penn is also a contender from the same film and the more likely nominee, but double nominations have happened before when a movie dominates the race.
Gold Derby ranking: 7
Jennifer Lopez, “Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Supporting Actress)
Lopez came close to a nomination for “Hustlers” and has been working toward this moment for years. Reviews for her new take on “Kiss of the Spider Woman” have been glowing, and the Supporting Actress field is less crowded than usual. With the right campaign, this could finally be her Oscar year.
Gold Derby ranking: 10
The beauty of awards season is that it’s never truly locked. Momentum shifts, passion builds, and suddenly the impossible starts to look inevitable. Every one of these performances still has a path, and at this point in the race, belief might be the smartest bet you can make.
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