Golden Globes Nominations: What They Signal About the Oscar Race
The Golden Globes stand as one of the four major precursors in the awards season calendar, alongside SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. A nomination at any of these stops does not secure an Oscar slot, but missing one can cause the odds to drop fast. It signals that a contender is no longer gliding into the lineup and is instead battling for one of the remaining few spots that voters have not yet mentally claimed. This year’s nominations brought welcome clarity to parts of the race while also stirring up new tensions that will shape the weeks ahead.
Major Snubs: The Campaigns That Took a Hit
Picture
The biggest shock of the nominations was Wicked: For Good missing Best Motion Picture, Musical of Comedy. The film had been treated as a placeholder in the Best Picture race, riding the strong performance of Part 1 across last years award season, with the expectation that Part 2 would follow suit. Early precursors hinted at cracks, and anyone following the season could see it was more vulnerable than expected. The Globes have long embraced musicals, and this absence feels like a clear warning that Wicked’s Best Picture chances are effectively dead.
Several films that were already viewed as borderline contenders also failed to appear in Picture. Train Dreams, Jay Kelly, and The Testament of Ann Lee all would have gained meaningful momentum from a slot here. The misses are not fatal, but each one removes an early chance to show strength and leaves these films more exposed.
Avatar: Fire and Ash also missed out, although its late screening schedule offers a plausible explanation. Voters had very little time to see it before ballots closed, so the lack of recognition should not be interpreted as a final judgment.
Acting
The acting categories delivered few surprises, but the ones that appeared carry real weight.
Wunmi Mosaku missing was the most significant surprise. She had been building strong momentum during the early precursor stretch, so being left off the list here raises real doubts. She is still in contention, but her path now looks considerably more precarious.
The actresses from Marty Supreme continue to struggle. After missing at Critics Choice and now the Globes, it is becoming clear that Timothee Chalamet may be the film’s sole acting nominee.
Emily Blunt’s nomination for The Smashing Machine offers her a valuable stabilizing moment. Supporting Actress is not a deep field this year, and even though the film may only receive one other nomination for makeup, she now has an increasingly realistic path to an Oscar slot.
Delroy Lindo failing to appear was disappointing for many observers. He remains a beloved figure who deserves Academy attention, but this snub makes his road to a nomination very steep. He is probably sitting just outside the top six.
Director
The most meaningful miss in Director came from Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme. Combined with the film’s uneven performance across other categories (also missing supporting actress and score), this absence suggests that the movie’s awards ceiling is lower than many expected in the early fall.
Surprises: The Unexpected Names That Shifted the Landscape
Two Richard Linklater films appeared in the Musical or Comedy categories. This was an unexpected and oddly delightful twist. Neither film is likely to factor into Best Picture, but this showing will lift Ethan Hawke in the Actor race for Blue Moon and strengthen Nouvelle Vague in the International Feature conversation.
Guillermo del Toro’s placement in Director for Frankenstein was one of the clearest statements of strength in the entire announcement. It confirms that the film is a top tier Oscar contender and that del Toro is a serious threat for a nomination.
Eva Victor’s nomination in Actress was predicted by some forecasters but was still a lower tier possibility. While she is not likely to carry over into the Oscar race for acting, her appearance here proves that voters truly respond to Sorry Baby. That affection may help the film in Original Screenplay come Oscar nomination morning.
A more subtle but exciting surprise came from Sirat appearing in Original Score. The techno driven sound raised questions about whether traditional voters would embrace it.
Who Got a Boost: Contenders That Strengthened Their Oscar Narratives
Two films that have been on the bubble for Best Picture received significant support. Bugonia and The Secret Agent showing up in their respective Picture categories is a real sign of strength. Both films now move from long shots into legitimate contenders.
Rose Byrne continues to demonstrate real staying power this season. Each precursor has demanded proof, and she keeps delivering. At this point she feels like a solid lock for an Oscar nomination.
Cynthia Erivo needed a Globe nomination to remain viable in the Actress race. She achieved exactly that. She still has work to do, but she remains in the mix rather than falling away from the pack.
The nomination for No Other Choice in Musical or Comedy was another important boost. It keeps its long shot Best Picture hopes alive. The final obstacle is whether Neon can realistically push four films into Best Picture and whether the Academy will be comfortable nominating four foreign language films in one year. That has never happened before.
For a full list of the Golden Globes categories and nominees, click here!
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