Today’s Oscar shortlist announcement marks the first real inflection point of the season. While the shortlist covers just 12 categories, all below the line, it offers our earliest glimpse of how the Academy itself is responding to this year’s contenders. Shortlist placement does not guarantee a nomination, but it does reveal where industry enthusiasm is quietly building and where it may already be fading.
Until now, the season has largely belonged to critics. Their prizes shape narratives and signal early frontrunners, but they do not always reflect how the Academy ultimately votes. The shortlist is different. This is the first time the industry has formally weighed in, and the results are already reshaping the race. Some films emerged newly emboldened. Others look increasingly fragile.
Shortlist Tally
- 8 mentions: Wicked for Good, Sinners
- 6 mentions: Frankenstein
- 5 mentions: F1, One Battle After Another, Sirat
- 4 mentions: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Train Dreams
- 3 mentions: Hamnet, Sentimental Value, Tron: Ares
The Biggest Boosts
The clear winner of the day is Wicked for Good. After a shaky start to awards season, and an increasingly disappointing box office, many pundits had removed it from their Best Picture predictions entirely. That narrative looks premature now. With eight shortlist mentions, tying Sinners with Sinners for most overall, the film has reasserted itself as an industry favorite. The Academy may not be fully aligned with critics here, but there is still a great deal of affection for this project, and it is very much alive in the race.
Sirat also dramatically outperformed expectations. Most pundits had not even included it in their predicted International Feature lineup, let alone anticipated a strong multi-category showing. Neon’s slate is crowded this year, but Sirat can no longer be treated as an afterthought. Its presence across the shortlist suggests broader Academy support, not just a courtesy nod in the international category.
The Films Losing Ground
On the opposite end of the spectrum sits Testament of Ann Lee, which was completely shut out. Many expected it to appear in Original Song at the very least. Its absence across the board is concerning and suggests that the Academy simply is not responding to the film. That has ripple effects, particularly for Amanda Seyfried’s Best Actress hopes, which now look significantly weaker.
Jay Kelly also suffered a major setback. Long positioned as an industry-friendly contender that would surge once Academy voters engaged, it managed only a single mention in Original Score. That is a sobering result. If this was meant to be the moment where the film found its footing, it failed to do so.
Weapons landing in Makeup could have been a meaningful signal for broader support, particularly as a genre film that some voters may approach cautiously. A stronger showing might have opened the door for Amy Madigan in Supporting Actress. As it stands, her chances are not dead, but they remain uphill.
A Shaky Documentary and International Picture Landscape
Documentary Feature remains one of the most unpredictable categories, and this year is no exception. Even films that dominate precursor awards often fail to make the shortlist. The most notable omission here was Put Your Soul On Your Hand and Walk, which many had confidently penciled into the eventual Oscar five. Its absence is a reminder that visibility does not always translate to Academy support.Neon’s international slate also remains a fascinating puzzle. Many had been trying to rank the studio’s five submissions, with Sirat often assumed to be the weakest link. Today’s shortlist suggests otherwise. Instead, No Other Choice, which only appeared in International Feature, now looks the most vulnerable. That raises the question of whether Neon can truly land all five films in the final lineup, or whether one will fall to a late-breaking challenger like The Voice of Hind Rajab.
Where Things Stand
If the shortlist tells us anything, it is this. Wicked for Good and Sirat gained the most ground today, while Testament of Ann Lee and Jay Kelly are effectively on life support. The Academy has begun to draw its lines, even if the final picture remains fluid.
Oscar nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced on Thursday, January 22, 2026. Until then, the shortlist has done what it always does best. It has clarified the race by complicating it.
For a full list of the Oscar’s shortlist, click here!
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