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Ashlee Pradella

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS IN EVERY CATEGORY

Nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced Thursday, January 22, via livestream, with actors Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman revealing the nominees across all 24 categories. And this year, predicting the line-up feels more unpredictable than usual.

A Record-Breaking Year?

At the top of the pack, most awards watchers have circled One Battle After Another for Best Picture. But the film generating perhaps the most buzz isn’t necessarily the presumed frontrunner, it’s Sinners. Many pundits believe it could shatter the all-time nomination record. Currently, three films share the record with 14 nominations: All About Eve (1950), Titanic (1997), and La La Land (2016). Could Sinners ascend to a historic 15 noms? 

International Film Strength

Another compelling subplot of this season is the strength of international cinema. The Oscars have increasingly embraced global voices, and in recent years we’ve seen two international films break through into the Best Picture slate. But this year, with a particularly formidable field, many expect three international features to crack Best Picture. What complicates that narrative is the unusual dominance of a single distributor, with Neon being behind many of the year’s most acclaimed international titles. Historically, it’s rare for one studio to secure three separate Best Picture nominations, making this a fascinating dynamic to watch.

What We Know, and What We Don’t

With BAFTA nominations not arriving until January 27 AFTER the Oscar nominations are announced, this is one of the rare years where Oscar predictions are being made without a key late-stage precursor. That absence removes an important data point, especially in crowded acting and technical races, and has left several categories feeling more open than usual. Instead, momentum is being driven by longlists, guild results, critics’ awards, and late campaign pushes.

Taking all of that into account, here are my final nomination predictions ahead of Thursday’s announcement.

BEST PICTURE

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Sinners
  3. Hamnet
  4. Frankenstein
  5. Marty Supreme
  6. Sentimental Value
  7. Bugonia
  8. Train Dreams
  9. The Secret Agent
  10. It Was Just An Accident

Alternates: F1, Weapons, Blue Moon, Sirat, Wicked: For Good, Nuremberg, Avatar: Fire and Ash

BEST DIRECTOR

  1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
  2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
  3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
  4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
  5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Alternates: Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Kleber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia)

BEST ACTRESS

  1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
  2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You 
  3. Chase Infinity, One Battle After Another
  4. Emma Stone, Bugonia 
  5. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Alternates: Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)

BEST ACTOR

  1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
  2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another 
  3. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
  4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
  5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Alternates: Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another 
  2. Amy Madigan, Weapons 
  3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
  4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
  5. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme

Alternates: Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
  2. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
  3. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
  4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
  5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Alternates: Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Miles Caton (Sinners)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  1. Sinners
  2. Sentimental Value
  3. Marty Supreme
  4. It Was Just An Accident
  5. Sorry, Baby

Alternates: Weapons, The Secret Agent, Blue Moon

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Hamnet
  3. Frankenstein
  4. Bugonia
  5. Train Dreams

Alternates: No Other Choice, Wake Up Dead Man, Nuremberg

CASTING

  1. Sinners
  2. One Battle After Another
  3. Marty Supreme
  4. Frankenstein
  5. Hamnet

Alternates: Sentimental Value, Weapons, The Secret Agent

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

  1. Sentimental Value
  2. The Secret Agent
  3. It Was Just An Accident
  4. Sirat
  5. No Other Choice

Alternates: The Voice of Hind Rajab, The President’s Cake, The Sound of Falling

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  1. The Perfect Neighbor
  2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
  3. Cover-Up
  4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
  5. The Alabama Solution

Alternates: Apocalypse in the Tropics, Seeds, Cutting Through Rocks

ANIMATED FEATURE

  1. KPop Demon Hunters
  2. Zootopia 2
  3. Arco
  4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
  5. Elio

Alternates: In Your Dreams, Demon Slayer

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  1. Sinners
  2. One Battle After Another
  3. Frankenstein
  4. Train Dreams
  5. Marty Supreme

Alternates: Hamnet, F1, Nouvelle Vague

FILM EDITING

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Sinners
  3. Marty Supreme
  4. Hamnet
  5. F1

Alternates: Sentimental Value, Bugonia, Frankenstein

PRODUCTION DESIGN

  1. Frankenstein
  2. Sinners
  3. Wicked: For Good
  4. Hamnet
  5. Marty Supreme

Alternates: One Battle After Another, Avatar: Fire and Ash

COSTUME DESIGN

  1. Frankenstein
  2. Sinners
  3. Wicked: For Good
  4. Marty Supreme
  5. Hamnet

Alternates: Hedda, The Secret Agent, One Battle After Another

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

  1. Frankenstein
  2. Sinners
  3. Wicked: For Good
  4. The Smashing Machine
  5. One Battle After Another

Alternates: Marty Supreme, The Alto Knights, Nuremberg

VISUAL EFFECTS

  1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
  2. F1
  3. The Lost Bus
  4. Frankenstein
  5. Sinners

Alternates: Superman, Wicked: For Good

SOUND

  1. Sinners
  2. One Battle After Another
  3. F1
  4. Frankenstein
  5. Sirat

Alternates: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good

ORIGINAL SCORE

  1. Sinners
  2. One Battle After Another
  3. Frankenstein
  4. Hamnet
  5. F1

Alternates: Marty Supreme, Sirat, Train Dreams

ORIGINAL SONG

  1. “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters
  2. “I Lied to You,” Sinners
  3. “The Girl in the Bubble,” Wicked: For Good
  4. “Dream as One,” Avatar: Fire and Ash
  5. “Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless

Alternates: “Train Dreams” (Train Dreams), “Last Time I Seen the Sun” (Sinners), “No Place Like Home” (Wicked: For Good)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

  1. All the Empty Rooms
  2. Armed with Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
  3. The Devil’s Busy
  4. All the Walls Come Down
  5. Cashing Out

ANIMATED SHORT

  1. Snow Bear
  2. Eiru
  3. Butterfly
  4. Forevergreen
  5. Autokar

LIVE ACTION SHORT

  1. Beyond Silence
  2. The Boy with White Skin
  3. Ado
  4. A Friend of Dorothy
  5. Amarela

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Ashlee Pradella's avatar

Ashlee Pradella

Binge. play. Watch. Repeat.

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