Final Oscar Predictions: A Wide Open Race Heads Into the Academy Awards
The Oscars are almost here, and after months of campaigning, screenings, and precursor awards, the finish line is finally in sight. This season has felt like a marathon, but it has also been one of the most exciting and unpredictable races in recent memory.
Several categories remain wide open heading into Oscar night. Best Picture appears to be a two-film race between One Battle After Another and Sinners, while three of the four acting categories still feel genuinely competitive. It is rare to enter the ceremony with this much uncertainty across the board.
The biggest question, of course, is Best Picture. Statistically, One Battle After Another has the advantage thanks to strong support across the guilds and major precursors. But Sinners has built undeniable momentum late in the season, becoming the most passionate contenders in the race.
A split between Picture and Director is also possible. It has happened before, most recently when CODA won Best Picture while Jane Campion took Director for The Power of the Dog.
At this point, the race feels like a clash between two standout films with passionate supporters on both sides. No matter which one ultimately wins, it is the kind of matchup that people will likely be debating for years.
Here are my final predictions in every category.
Final Oscar Predictions
Best Picture
- Bugonia
- F1
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle after Another
- The Secret Agent
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Train Dreams
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Best Director
- Chloé Zhao — Hamnet
- Josh Safdie — Marty Supreme
- Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle after Another (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Joachim Trier — Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler — Sinners
Could Win: Ryan Coogler
Best Actor
- Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio — One Battle after Another
- Ethan Hawke — Blue Moon
- Michael B. Jordan — Sinners (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent
Could win: Leonardo Dicaprio, Wagner Moura
Best Actress
- Jessie Buckley — Hamnet (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
- Kate Hudson — Song Sung Blue
- Renate Reinsve — Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone — Bugonia
Could Win: Rose Byrne
Best Supporting Actor
- Benicio Del Toro — One Battle after Another
- Jacob Elordi — Frankenstein
- Delroy Lindo — Sinners
- Sean Penn — One Battle after Another (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Stellan Skarsgård — Sentimental Value
Could Win: Delroy Lindo
Best Supporting Actress
- Elle Fanning — Sentimental Value
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — Sentimental Value
- Amy Madigan — Weapons
- Wunmi Mosaku — Sinners (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Teyana Taylor — One Battle after Another
Could win: Amy Madigan
Best Original Screenplay
- Blue Moon — Robert Kaplow
- It Was Just an Accident — Jafar Panahi
- Marty Supreme — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
- Sentimental Value — Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier
- Sinners — Ryan Coogler (PREDICTED WINNER)
Could win: Sentimental Value
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Bugonia — Will Tracy
- Frankenstein — Guillermo del Toro
- Hamnet — Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
- One Battle after Another — Paul Thomas Anderson (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Train Dreams — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Could Win: Hamnet
Best International Feature
- Brazil — The Secret Agent
- France — It Was Just an Accident
- Norway — Sentimental Value (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Spain — Sirāt
- Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab
Could Win: The Secret Agent
Best Animated Feature
- Arco
- Elio
- KPop Demon Hunters (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
- Zootopia 2
Could Win: Zootopia 2
Best Cinematography
- Frankenstein — Dan Laustsen
- Marty Supreme — Darius Khondji
- One Battle after Another — Michael Bauman (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Sinners — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
- Train Dreams — Adolpho Veloso
Could Win: Sinners
Best Film Editing
- F1 — Stephen Mirrione
- Marty Supreme — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
- One Battle after Another — Andy Jurgensen (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Sentimental Value — Olivier Bugge Coutté
- Sinners — Michael P. Shawver
Could Win: Sinners
Best Production Design
- Frankenstein (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle after Another
- Sinners
Could Win: Sinners
Best Costume Design
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Frankenstein (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- Sinners
Could Win: Sinners
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
- Frankenstein (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Kokuho
- Sinners
- The Smashing Machine
- The Ugly Stepsister
Could Win: Sinners
Best Original Score
- Bugonia — Jerskin Fendrix
- Frankenstein — Alexandre Desplat
- Hamnet — Max Richter
- One Battle after Another — Jonny Greenwood
- Sinners — Ludwig Göransson (PREDICTED WINNER)
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Best Original Song
- “Dear Me” — Diane Warren: Relentless
- “Golden” — KPop Demon Hunters (PREDICTED WINNER)
- “I Lied To You” — Sinners
- “Sweet Dreams of Joy” — Viva Verdi!
- “Train Dreams” — Train Dreams
Could Win: ‘I Lied To You’ – Sinners
Best Sound
- F1 (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Frankenstein
- One Battle after Another
- Sinners
- Sirāt
Could Win: Sinners
Best Visual Effects
- Avatar: Fire and Ash (PREDICTED WINNER)
- F1
- Jurassic World Rebirth
- The Lost Bus
- Sinners
Could Win: Sinners
Best Documentary Feature
- The Alabama Solution
- Come See Me in the Good Light
- Cutting Through Rocks
- Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PREDICTED WINNER)
- The Perfect Neighbor
Could Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Best Animated Short
- Butterfly
- Forevergreen (PREDICTED WINNER)
- The Girl Who Cried Pearls
- Retirement Plan
- The Three Sisters
Could Win: Butterfly
Best Live Action Short
- Butcher’s Stain
- A Friend of Dorothy
- Jane Austen’s Period Drama
- The Singers
- Two People Exchanging Saliva (PREDICTED WINNER)
Could Win: A Friend of Dorothy
Best Documentary Short
- All the Empty Rooms (PREDICTED WINNER)
- Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
- Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
- The Devil Is Busy
- Perfectly a Strangeness
Could Win: The Devil Is Busy
Best Casting
- Hamnet — Nina Gold
- Marty Supreme — Jennifer Venditti
- One Battle after Another — Cassandra Kulukundis
- The Secret Agent — Gabriel Domingues
- Sinners — Francine Maisler (PREDICTED WINNER)
Could Win: One Battle After Another
______________________________________________________________________
Binge. play. Watch. Repeat.
