2025 Oscar Contenders So Far: What We’ve Seen in the First Half of 2025 That Could Go the Distance
Since we’re six months into the year, it’s the perfect moment to take stock of what we’ve seen so far and which films already have the potential to earn Oscar nominations. The last four Best Picture winners all premiered before or during summer, so history tells us this early part of the calendar matters. Whether through wide releases or major festival debuts, a number of films have already crossed critics’ desks and begun shaping the awards conversation.
That said, the general sentiment is that 2025 has been a quieter year so far, at least in terms of obvious frontrunners. The real heavyweight titles could still be waiting in the fall festivals. But that does not mean this first half of the year has been without serious players. In fact, it has offered up at least three films that might very well go all the way.
“right now, the clearest best picture contender is sinners”
The Movie to Beat?
Right now, the clearest Best Picture contender from a wide release is Sinners. At this point, it would be shocking if it did not at least secure a nomination. The film has become a box office phenomenon and struck a rare chord with both audiences and critics. Its social relevance and technical craft give it a broad and sturdy base of support. Its strongest shots so far are in Best Original Score and Best Original Song, both involving two-time Oscar winner Ludwig Göransson. Ryan Coogler also has a strong chance at Best Director. But this is really an across-the-board contender.
Some have questioned whether Sinners will hit a genre bias wall. But that argument is becoming harder to make. If The Substance could break through last year, Sinners can too. The bigger question is whether Warner Bros will put its full weight behind it. The studio has the new Paul Thomas Anderson film coming (One Battle After Another), which is sure to be a priority. But if they are smart, Sinners should be sitting at number one on their awards slate. Given that only once in the past five years has a studio landed multiple Best Picture nominees, they will have to choose carefully.
Cannes Delivers a Frontrunner
Over at Cannes, Sentimental Value walked away with the Grand Prix and an avalanche of Oscar buzz. Some are calling it the Best Picture frontrunner already. Part of what makes Sentimental Value so formidable is its strength above the line. It has a stacked ensemble with multiple actors vying for nominations, including Stellan Skarsgård, the beloved industry veteran who somehow has never been nominated. The film comes from a filmmaker who has already earned an Original Screenplay nomination, which only strengthens its case.The film’s meta-cinema themes and Hollywood connections will also help its campaign. Neon, which has a history of pulling off Best Picture wins with Parasite and Anora, is behind it. With the right push, this could be their next golden ticket.
Do Not Underestimate the Palme d’Or Effect
There is also It Was Just an Accident, this year’s Palme d’Or winner from Jafar Panahi. Neon has its hands full, but it would be foolish to overlook this one. Four of the last five Palme winners have gone on to snag Best Picture nominations, with two winning. The Academy’s international branch continues to grow in influence, and Panahi’s story as a filmmaker working under extraordinary constraints adds to the film’s narrative appeal. If any studio is poised to land two Best Picture nominees this year, it is Neon.
Other Early Players to Watch
While Sinners, Sentimental Value, and It Was Just an Accident are the major forces so far, several other early titles could land important nominations in individual categories:
- F1 — Best Sound
- Black Bag — Best Original Screenplay
- Kiss of the Spider Woman — Best Supporting Actress (Jennifer Lopez)
- Sorry Baby — Best Original Screenplay
- The Secret Agent — International Feature, Best Actor
- Sirat — International Feature
- The Perfect Neighbor — Documentary Feature
- Die My Love — Best Actress (Jennifer Lawrence)
- Elio — Animated Feature
We are only halfway through the year. While the fall festivals and studio slates are still loaded with unknowns, the race is quietly taking shape. If history repeats itself, one of these early contenders might already have its name on a future Oscar envelope.
Binge. play. Watch. Repeat.
